A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
